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Centre for Risk Research

Predicting the Future: Dr. James Reade Delivers Seminar on Forecasting Sports Events

Published: 15 December 2014
Sports betting is a growth sector

Dr James Reade, Lecturer in Economics at the University of Reading, recently delivered a seminar that explored the extent to which bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters accurately predict the outcome of uncertain events.

In a seminar co-hosted by the Centre for Risk Research (CRR) and the Centre of Operational Research, Management Sciences & Information Systems (CORMSIS), James Reade presented his latest research which explores whether forecasts are better when more information about an event is available and when the type of event is considered more predictable. James examined forecasts made by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. James argued that all three types of forecast represent different structures of information processing and as such would be expected to perform differently. James explained how his research showed that, by and large, events that are more predictable, and for which more information is available, do tend to be forecast better.

Can future outcomes be predicted?
Can future outcomes be predicted?

James Reade received his PhD in Macroeconomic Forecasting under the supervision of David Hendry at University of Oxford, where James also worked as a Post-Doctoral Researcher. He subsequently took up a lecturership at University of Birmingham for fours years before moving to the University of Reading last summer. His research is primarily applied in nature, seeking to shed light on economic theories using the increasing masses of "big data".

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