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Centre for Risk Research

Cass Business School Professor Delivers Seminar on 'The Dark Side' of Financial Forecasting

Published: 7 October 2013

In a Centre for Risk Research seminar, Professor Roy Batchelor challenged the conventional idea that in efficient markets all but the most advanced forecasting methods are doomed to fail.

Professor Batchelor has spent the last 10 years analysing the behaviour of ‘technical analysts', a term which covers those who use anything from pattern recognition in charts to wave theory, magic numbers and astrology to forecast financial markets. In his talk, he revealed the findings of his research to a packed lectured theatre, which has involved investigating the track records and methods of those who practice ‘technical analysis', what he terms the ‘dark side' of the financial forecasting profession!

Answering challenging questions

Professor Batchelor revealed that there are many charlatans on the dark side who fleece retail investors and that there are gaps between what academics claim is technical analysis and the behavior of serious professional technical traders. He discussed how his research had identified a gap between what technical traders say they do and what they actually do with their own and their client's money. He also revealed valuable insights for beating the market from some of the pattern-based methods used by the ‘dark side'.

Roy provides forecasting advice

Roy Batchelor is Professor of Banking and Finance at Cass Business School, City of London, Director of the Cass Executive MBA programme in Dubai, and a Fellow and Visiting Research Professor at the CESIfo Institute, Munich. Roy is active in consultancy and professional training, where he has worked for the London International Financial Futures Exchange, the World Gold Council, some well-known UK and US banks and hedge funds, and the Bank of England.

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